What is the test for proving Rule 11 error affected a defendant's substantial rights?

In order to demonstrate that a Rule 11 error affected his substantial rights, a defendant must show "a reasonable probability that, but for the error, he would not have entered the plea." United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 542 U.S. 74, 83, 124 S.Ct. 2333, 159 L.Ed.2d 157 (2004). In determining whether the defendant has made such a showing, we consider, inter alia, "any record evidence tending to show that a misunderstanding was inconsequential to a defendant's decision" to plead guilty, as well as the "overall strength of the Government's case." Id. at 84-85, 124 S.Ct. 2333.