What is the test for determining whether an innocent course of conduct is less likely than a criminal one?

MultiRegion, United States of America

The following excerpt is from U.S. v. Portillo-Reyes, 529 F.2d 844 (9th Cir. 1975):

(T)he succession of superficially innocent events (may proceed) to the point where a prudent man could say to himself that an innocent course of conduct (is) substantially less likely than a criminal one.

United States v. Patterson, 492 F.2d at 997.

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