What is the standard for determining that a convicted sex offender is likely to reoffend?

The factfinder " 'must conclude that the person is "likely" to reoffend if, because of a current mental disorder which makes it difficult or impossible to restrain violent sexual behavior, the person presents a substantial danger, that is, a serious and well-founded risk, that he or she will commit such crimes if free in the community.' [Citation.] This standard requires 'much more than the mere possibility that the person will reoffend,' but it does not call for 'a precise determination that the chance of reoffense is better than even.' " (People v. Flores (2006) 144 Cal.App.4th 625, 632.)

Predatory sexual conduct must be likely (see 6000, subd. (e)), not merely criminal sexual conduct. " 'Predatory' means an act is directed toward a stranger, a person of casual acquaintance with whom no substantial relationship exists, or an individual with whom a relationship has been established or promoted for the primary purpose of victimization." ( 6600, subd. (e), italics added.) The reason for this distinction is that "[b]ecause predatory offenders could strike at any time and victimize anyone, they pose a much greater threat to the public at large. In contrast, a defendant likely to commit crimes only against family members or close acquaintances is less likely to reoffend because potential victims will be aware of the defendant's status as a sex offender. The public at large, however, is inevitably more defenseless against acts committed by strangers." (People v. Hurtado (2002) 28 Cal.4th 1179, 1187-1188.)

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